Saxo Market Call
Saxo Bank’s strategy team delivers daily market insights across all asset classes, including equities, fixed income, currencies, and commodities. Each episode provides analysis of key market movements and trading opportunities. The podcast is aimed at investors and traders seeking professional perspectives on global financial markets.
Episoder
With special guest Peter Garnry of Gesda Capital
Today, a conversation with special guest Peter Garnry, co-founder of Gesda Capital on choosing and valuing stocks for the long run, observations on the current state of play in AI as expressed in equity markets, the Meta and other news this week and its implications, whether AI can truly scale as hoped and so much more, even what Peter is reading these days. I'm sure listeners will enjoy this conv
Meta announcement: just a warning shot or the actual pin prick?
Today, a look at global equity markets roiled by Meta's announcement that it will rent out use spare data center capacity for AI applications, raising concerns for AI-linked cap-ex and all stocks linked with the "AI picks and shovels" theme even as it was read as a boon for Meta's stock itself. Software as a service and consulting names also rallied on the news. Elsewhere, Japan is intervening aga
Rocket Lab enters the space comms fray with Iridium grab. Also, USA at 250!
John's piece: Wall Street at 250 through a Wall Street lens: Where we've been and what comes next.
Today, a round-up of another session with AI hardware momentum names rocketing higher, while the broader market was largely sideways. Elsewhere, crypto and gold are both teetering near or beyond key support at critical technical levels, while we note an ugly turn in one part of the US Consumer Confid
Leverage upon leverage, what could go wrong?
Today, a look at the latest strong session for some of the market's highest momentum names, as we note with some caution the risks that leverage, especially not fully evident hidden leverage is a mounting risk for the most speculative corners of the market. We also preview Nike earnings as the company does not yet look like a bargain after its 77% fall from all time highs into yesterday's low, unl
Flat Friday on the index surface, but bonkers beta underneath.
Today, a look at a much zanier Friday session in US equities than the almost flat close on the S&P 500 suggested as market internals have become wildly divergent, much of it linked to the market's bucketing of AI winners and losers. Elsewhere, as Volkswagen sets up a possibly 100,000 layoffs, in part on weaker Chinese demand and greater competition from cheaper Chinese EVs, and as Europe roast
Apple pays for the hubris. Samsung to bust out a quadrillion in cap-ex.
Today's John J. Hardy substack post.
Today, a look at some incredible volatility and cross-currents in the US equity market as Mag7 continues to come in for a beating as chip stocks soared once again. But then the two Korean memory makers stumble overnight, perhaps on Samsung announcing it my plow KRW 1 quadrillion (about USD 650 billion) into cap-ex over the next decade. Elsewhere, the market gav
Micron tries to revive AI hardware momo. Gold tests below 4,000.
Today, the blow-out Micron earnings report is doing all it can to revive the AI hardware momentum trade, and it will be interesting to see how the huge jump in Micron shares ages into the options expiry this Friday. Elsewhere, the US dollar has continued its rally, but will fresh drivers for further strength be hard to come by? A focus on sterling's upside potential on the potential Burnham politi
The US dollar is having its cake and eating it too...for now.
Today, we look at the drivers of the stronger US dollar as it pulls to new highs for the year and what may be holding back USDJPY from participating in the greenback rally as those forty-year highs from 2024 approach. Elsewhere, yesterday's US equity market session was so far mostly only a one-off meltdown in high momentum stocks, with the median stock positive on the day. Massive interest and pot
Chips suddenly on tilt into Micron earnings Wednesday
Today's John J. Hardy Substack post - you won't want to miss today's links!
Today, a huge vibe shift overnight as Korean memory stocks come unglued Tuesday, sending US equity market futures into a tailspin. Is this just a bit of retrenchment ahead of Micron's earnings Wednesday after the close or is the market at risk of a bigger air-pocket? Elsewhere, the US dollar is breaking higher, but with US
Likely Super El Niño building: a non-alarmist take on the risks
Today, a sober and thorough look at the risks for key commodities and equities on the powerful El Niño climate phenomenon building in the Pacific, one that could prove the most intense humanity has experienced in many decades. Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy takes you through the potential commodity impacts and reminds us that some areas can see positive outcomes even if key food commodities and e
Accenture needing dentures after market knocks its teeth out
Today, we highlight another high energy day for the equity market, with semiconductor stocks screaming back higher and the US dollar continuing its move higher post-FOMC, even as we question whether the market is anticipating the future path of Fed policy appropriately. A focus on the worst performer in the S&P 500 today: Accenture, which was pummelled 18% to an almost nine-year low on fears o
Fed Chair Warsh impact washes over markets
Today, we note the huge change in vibe and substance as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh took charge at the Fed at his first meeting. He is a great communicator and put his stamp on how this Fed will be a very different one with far fewer hints on its intentions - i.e. no forward guidance to the degree possible. The initial market read was clearly hawkish, but while short rates jumped as a possible FOMC
Choppy chips even as crude mega-dips. Warsh on tap.
Today, some last thoughts on the FOMC ahead of the meeting as the market is treating it with little anticipation even if this is likely to prove the most significant ideological change at the Fed since Greenspan left in 2006. Also - evidence from a choppy session for chips that the market nervousness may be rising for the hero sectors powering the recent market advance, especially given the max su
The tails wagging the market and SpaceX dogs
Today's John J. Hardy Substack post for this podcast
Today we look at a fresh stunning advance in US equities as we reapproach the all time highs for the main US indices, with a wild advance in SpaceX shares perhaps one key bit of the sentiment "tail" wagging the overall market dog as we also discuss why SpaceX shares may have risen so aggressively, even after hours yesterday. Elsewhere, a breakdo
FOMO in equities, ho-hum in macro even as new Fed era begins this week.
Today, a look at risk sentiment in full swing after a successful SpaceX IPO on Friday and a stronger sense that the Iran war ceasefire may last long enough for shipping lanes to fully open in the Hormuz Strait, at least for a time. But while speculative energy remains high in equities, the broader macro picture is subdued, with little FX and rates volatility even as the new Kevin Warsh Fed marks t
Rounding up the usual suspects as a new era at the Fed dawns next week.
Today, the usual suspects knee-jerked higher Thursday on Trump's latest peace declaration as crude oil dropped, while the other usual suspects (software as a service) were some of the worst performers ahead of Adobe's earnings release after the close. Also, a strong discussion of the status for gold, copper, crude oil and El Niño with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, a look at macro and
The either-or moment for US stocks and gold
Today, a look at markets testing the lows again yesterday, but trying to put in a rally ahead of a huge market event tomorrow that could define where this market heads next in what could prove an either-or moment. Elsewhere, interesting market reaction to Oracle's earnings report after the close, and super-critical support levels have come into play for the gold price, which faces its own either-o
Market volatility expansion flashes red. Gold key support in view.
Today, a look at what the further acceleration in US- and other market volatility means, particularly for the highly speculative chip stocks that have seen the greatest gains this year, even on a day when the broader market and median stock closed in the green. Elsewhere, gold is melting down and faces a critical support level soon if the selling continues. This and much more on macro and FX also
Many moving parts ahead of next week's seminal event
Today, a look at the market trying to continue its bounce-back from Friday's meltdown in especially chip stocks, interesting news flow on the AI data center financing front, lots on macro and FX and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
Today's The FX Trader from John
The great Izabella Kaminska with second order thinking in an X post on the poss
Correction not yet a calamity.
Today, putting Friday's big market sell-off in perspective as an overdue development after the huge recent ramp in high momentum stocks. Broader risk sentiment remains fairly calm, though there is a bit of stress from geopolitics and higher oil prices, as well as on crypto and from a stronger US dollar and higher US treasury yields. Lots to focus on this week and next with the incoming earnings of
The real reason Musk wants to go to Mars?
Today we look at fresh blow-out enthusiasm for a major tech name reporting strong earnings that blasted its stock into the stratosphere after hours yesterday. We also note the bevy of interesting tech names reporting next week, run through some macro and FX observations, note the key technical hold in gold, the shifting forward curve in crude oil and more. Regarding today's episode title, consider
Snowflake rips, Gold at critical levels.
Today, we note the very different outcomes for the two admittedly very different software names Salesforce and Snowflake as both reported earnings after the close yesterday. Elsewhere, insane volatility for Marvell in yesterday's session ahead of its own earnings report after the close - are the wheels coming off a bit here for chip names. Also, Gold needs to take a stand here or else, plenty on
Memory mania or just catching up with fundamentals?
Today's John J. Hardy substack (and yes, embarrassing bad math from your host in today's podcast)
Today, we try to keep observations balanced as we observe the latest race higher in memory chip makers after a big bank posted a jaw-dropping price target for Micron. This helped pull the broader market higher, as did the recent drop in crude oil prices. Elsewhere, we look at Ferrari's stumble with it
Solace for quantum investors as long weekend awaits
Today, a look at quantum computing stocks getting a big bump on public investments in the space in the US. Elsewhere, it remains all about AI stocks pumping higher, while one notable software-as-a-service (Saas) name was the S&P 500 index's worst performer yesterday. Interesting earnings reports are up next week on both the chip and the SaaS front. Also, some more macro and FX observations and
Nvidia earnings a damp squib as something else is blotting out the sun.
Today, the prospect of perhaps the most anticipated IPO ever is overwhelming the market's interest in processing Nvidia's latest earnings report, which checked all of the boxes, but no more. Elsewhere, the latest headline risks from the Iran war are pointing in the right direction, but pointing isn't enough - we need a deal to bring more profound relief to bond markets and perhaps as well to keep
Pivotal days for tech and AI stocks, FX and rates
Today, markets are looking pivotal across the board ahead of the single biggest earnings report of the quarter as Nvidia reports after the market close today. Is the AI chip focus shifting a bit more toward inference and away from GPU's? Meanwhile, in the background, US and global yields have pressurized focus on broader equity market valuations and even FX is trying to come a bit more alive here
Which vehicle does the Musk cult choose post SpaceX IPO?
Today, a look at markets that are - and should remain - a bit nervous given the big push higher in global yields of late. Up ahead, we have some huge tests for this market, including Nvidia's earnings report Wednesday, a critical Starship launch pre-SpaceX IPO. And once SpaceX does IPO, how will that impact Tesla shares as the Musk faithful will suddenly have two vehicles to choose from. Also, the
Global bond yields are the captain now.
Today, a look at global bond yields setting the agenda across markets, the "nothingburger" Xi-Trump summit failing to make waves, the king of earnings reports coming in this week in the form of Nvidia's call after the close on Wednesday, a look at key macro and FX developments and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy
Links
Bloomberg article says power
Dip bought as Jensen Huang joins Trump in China. Also: oil, gold and wheat.
Today, a rundown of the market largely springing quickly back from a vicious semi-conductor sell-off ahead of critical potential incoming news as Jensen Huang is set to join Trump in Beijing as we await the outcome of the Trump-Xi summit. Is a deal afoot on semis and more? Also, Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen on the outlook for oil, interesting signs of precious metals resilience given
Korean politician pops the chip vibe. Sterling under pressure.
Today - a Korean politician sparked enormous volatility in the key chip names there on suggesting the idea of a "citizens' dividend" to be extracted from the companies' enormous profits. It's an important test of the chip space after the recent parabolic run-up in key names. Also, the lack of progress in the US and Iran re-opening the Hormuz Strait has the US dollar pushing higher on higher oil pr
Trump-Xi summit an historical moment. Also, an exquisitely timed IPO on deck.
Today, a look at the massive further ramping in the hottest AI-adjacent hardware names on Friday, although it was a former SaaS victim that rallied hardest in an ironic twist. Elsewhere, we note one of the more exquisitely timed AI-related IPOs set for this Thursday, while we await the historical moment of this week's Trump-Xi summit and the titanic stakes. This and more on today's pod, which is h
Some relief in software. Eyes on Trump-Xi next week.
Today, a look at US market performance behaving very differently yesterday as some software names got a big boost on an otherwise negative day, in part on DataDog's earnings result. Also, an interesting geopolitical signal comes out of Greenland, while there is plenty to talk about in macro and FX even if FX volatility remains restrained, waiting for US jobs data and next week's critical Trump-Xi
Chip madness getting close to FOMO mania phase?
Here is today's John J. Hardy substack post.
Today, a look at the latest run-up in semiconductor names, especially after AMD reported earnings yesterday after the close and whether this almost parabolic action in the SOX index is some kind of mania phase in this market. Also, a look at the latest in macro and FX, as Japan's Ministry of Finance seems to be out showing its determination once again t
Does this market rhyme with 1926, 1928 or even 1929?
Today, a look at the remarkable US market and its seeming immunity to any external development and what that suggests about where we may be in some sort of bubble super-cycle, one that has the host thinking of 1929, perhaps because he is reading the great book of that title by Andrew Ross Sorkin. Also, a look at Palantir's incoming earnings, FX moves and the US dollar and incoming earnings and mac
JPY intervention! And, can Economist covers open the Strait of Hormuz?
Today we discuss the key companies reporting in this week's earnings bonanza with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo, including Meta, Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft and Apple. We also note Nvidia's big drop on an otherwise positive day for the market - a concerning sign. Next week features several companies of note. Elsewhere, we note everyone rushing to declare a top in the crude oil market bec
Capex bombast versus spiking energy prices creating unbearable tension. Also, the JPY!
Today - how the market is parsing the titanic capex plans for the four Mag7 companies reporting after the US market close yesterday. With crude oil prices spiking aggressively, maintaining the AI exceptionalism trade will prove difficult unless prices back down. Also, a far more interesting FOMC meeting than was expected as Powell vows to stay on and put up a fight for Fed independence, a fight th
Four megacaps on tap late today to test market sentiment.
Today, a look at a modest market setback ahead of the single most important day on the earnings calendar this quarter, as four of the Mag7 are set to report earnings after the close today - each with its own twist, but overall with the focus on the scale of capital expenditures and cloud growth. Also, a look at yesterday's incoming earnings of note, energy (including of the nuclear sort), macro an
The cognitive dissonance is getting painful here.
Today's John J. Hardy substack post.
Today, challenging the notion that energy prices can remain here or go higher and risk sentiment can stay stable as we wonder where the market's pain point is. It's either that, or we must see clarity emerge in the Hormuz Strait to justify the equity market's strong sentiment. Also, a look at companies reporting yesterday and today, macro and FX, the Bank of Ja
Semiconductor momentum getting bubbly. Meanwhile, Hormuz Strait - what's that?
Today, a look at the continued incredible ramp in semiconductor names and whether we are inflating an incipient bubble, even if forward valuations in many case look quite reasonable. Elsewhere, we note the lack of progress in opening the Hormuz Strait and the implications that continue to multiply with every day and week that crude oil and refined products aren't reaching the global market. Meanwh
SaaSpocalypse NOW. Also, massive earnings and central bank week ahead.
Today, we look at the collateral damage in software-as-a-service land after ServiceNow shares suffered a nasty markdown yesterday after reporting earnings. We also look Intel's massive advance and other big movers on the day, and preview next week's peak-earnings season calendar with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo. Also, a preview of the five G10 central banks meeting next week, with the Pow
AI picks & shovels rocket higher. If only they could open the Hormuz Strait.
Today, a look at a concentrated market rally in the US yesterday, led by big picks and shovels names in AI, with GE Vernova leading the pack, even as market breadth was flat and risk sentiment is wobbly elsewhere on Iran continuing to obstruct shipping through the Hormuz Strait. Software-as-a-service names were under pressure after the US market close yesterday on ServiceNow reported earnings, the
Vast demand destruction is helping keep a lid on oil. Big SaaS test today.
Today, a look at a key factor keeping oil in check - namely demand destruction, as shipping flows through the Hormuz Strait remain at a trickle or less. Also, the factors supporting a still positive outlook for copper even at these levels. Elsewhere, a run through incoming earnings reports, including the first Software-as-a-Service (Saas) name of note reporting today after the close, which could p
What to look for in Warsh nomination hearings as US-Iran talks also in focus.
Today, as the headline US equity indices finally paused for breath after their recent steep run-up, a run-down of incoming earnings today and tomorrow and single stock stories of note. Also, a reminder that the next 24 hours or so are critical for the degree to which headline risk is set to pick up from the Middle East as the US and Iran are meant to meet in Islamabad. Also, a look at macro and FX
Earnings season ramps up this week amidst pesky Hormuz Strait headline risk
Today, a brief look at waking up this week to the latest headline risks from the Hormuz Strait, which have only weakly impacted US equity futures, while European equities are weak out of the gate to star t the week. Elsewhere, we delve into key earnings reports last week from the big US banks, European luxury makers and Netflix and upcoming earnings this week, including Tesla and Intel, all with S
What now after the "biblical vol reset"?
Today, a look at the US market completing one of its most remarkable comebacks ever as it ramped off recently lows to hit new all time highs in such quick order, even as high oil prices linger. We note the types of names that advanced and the lack of market breadth, wondering how the market will develop from here now that volatility has been crushed and with the heart of earnings season on tap ove
We've come full circle and then some for the USD and risk sentiment.
Today, a look at the US dollar and risk sentiment now having come full circle and even then some in individual cases from the levels trading prior to the outbreak of the Iran war as the market prefers to continue to ignore the dire near-term energy supply situation and residual uncertainties, hoping that flows resume in coming days. China's stance is a critical known unknown. Also, a breakdown of
Market dons the rose-tinted glasses and USD is breaking down
Today we look at the further strong resurgence in risk assets, noting in particular the first signs of a comeback in some of the most beaten down names in software of late. Elsewhere, Oracle, the most beaten down name in our AI basket was the strongest performer on the S&P 500 Monday. Also, a look at what looks like a fresh bear trend developing in the US dollar, thoughts on the importance of
Blockading the Hormuz Strait blockade: how does this work, exactly?
Today, we look at the fresh pain for global markets on the collapse of US-Iran talks this weekend and the new US intent to blockade the Hormuz Strait, at least for any ships that are paying tolls to Iran (and presumably any Iranian ship?). We also wonder how China may eventually weigh in, a key question ahead of a supposed Trump-Xi summit set for next month. Elsewhere, we look at the latest winner
Anthropic carving a path of devastation while we await outcome of US-Iran talks.
Today, a look at equity markets that remain hopeful as key US-Iran talks kick off today in Islamabad, Pakistan. Even so, some big software names were under fresh heavy pressure as Anthropic's latest model release carves a path of devastation across the software universe. Elsewhere, we continue to highlight the importance of spot versus future prices for oil, check in on the status of the USD and J
Wall of worry remains high, can bulls keep flexing?
Today, a look at the market maintaining a remarkably resilient stance despite Iran casting doubts on the status of the cease-fire announcement that so enthused market on Wednesday. A critical round of US-Iran negotiations lie ahead in Islamabad, Pakistan for the next round of headline risks. Elsewhere, we run through the development in oil prices, the USD picture and incoming economic data, highli
A robust market reaction to a quite fragile "cease-fire" in Iran.
Today, a look at the fragile "cease-fire" between the US and Iran and whether it is mostly a US climbdown from its maximalist threats than any remarkable change of attitude from the Iranian side. Regardless, global markets have reacted in dramatic fashion. We walk through the reaction across asset classes as significant near term oil- and gas supply uncertainties remain. This and much more on toda
Markets melt up on Trump's seeming urgency to end war, but ...
Today, an assessment of the end-of-March and quarter-end melt-up in equities, where calendar and positioning factors are likely key drivers in addition to Trump's seeming urgency to wind down the US war in Iran. A bit odd that US military presence continues to mount then, isn't it? A look at ongoing supply chain questions, how the situation is weighing on rates and FX and much more also on today's
Market keeps finding new pressure points besides the worst ones.
Today, a look at a US market that was under exceptional pressure as major US name sold off, taking the US market to cycle lows when the broader market and other markets globally are still solidly away from the prior lows. Also, noting the many pressure points on market concerns for class action suits against Meta and possibly Google, technical disruption boosting computer memory performance and ev
Market celebrating Trump's seeming desperation to pull US out of Iran war.
Markets are aggressively pricing an improved outlook for global energy flows as US president Trump seems to want to wrap things up in Iran as quickly as possible to avoid further damage to his popularity from the impact on the US economy from high energy prices and weak stock market sentiment. But not all players in the Middle East are on the same page - so we're a bit afraid to draw any conclusio
Trump rolls a social media grenade onto the trading floor.
Today we look at the market-altering after effects of Trump's claims of diplomacy with Iran as he backed away from an ultimatum against Iran's power infrastructure if the Straits of Hormuz remain closed, and how nothing has changed on the ground, or on the seas, even as oil prices remain significantly lower than where they were before Trump's claims yesterday. We also run through the latest moves
Markets are moving beyond denial stage as yields explode higher.
Markets had been reacting to the war in Iran recently, of course, but perhaps it has been the explosion higher in global bond yields that has triggered a more profound unease on Friday and today. It's also a factor in gold prices suffering a massive meltdown. Today's discussion looks at these factors as well as the ongoing war impacts on the forward oil market curve and the whole commodity space w
Triple witching into weekend uncertainty
Today, a look at a market for which volatility remains very much pent up as we face the triple whammy of triple witching, weekend uncertainty and pivotal technicals for US equity markets. Also, a survey of key incoming news and supply chain perspectives as the countdown for physical shortfalls in supplies continues. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
As disc
Risk off as war in Iran escalates. Also: possible drivers of weaker gold here.
The war in Iran has taken on new levels of concern after Israeli and Iranian attacks on gas production infrastructure in Iran and Qatar, respectively, with the dispersion of global energy prices exploding further on the news. Elsewhere, the central bank cavalcade continues with the Bank of Japan helping USDJPY steer away from new highs. The gold sell-off has suddenly accelerated and there are some
Next 24 hours are about seven central banks and memory lane, or at least Micron lane.
Today, a look at the market continuing to radiate confidence that things will turn out well despite the lack of real progress or any new clarity emerging from the war in Iran or Hormuz Strait. The market enthusiasm for memory makers remains hot and key player in that space Micron is reporting after the US close today. We also look at the seven of the G10 central banks up today and tomorrow, with B
Iran War maintains the boil. Market shrugs off Jensen Huang's latest hype.
Today, plenty of headlines from the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz to keep oil prices boiling, if not yet boiling over, with plenty more to come if the oil doesn't start flowing soon. Are the US and Israel flailing or slowly winning? The opinions are certainly very divided. Elsewhere, Jensen Huang's tries and fails to pump up enthusiasm for sideways trending Nvidia stock, an interesting sign
Markets continue to price that Iran War ended yesterday
Today, we discuss the markets continuing to price forward expectations that Hormuz Strait uncertainty will lift quickly from here, especially when one looks at the very steep backwardation in crude oil futures and US equity market sentiment. As well, we note that the critical signals in energy market pricing are to be found in key refined products more than crude itself. We also look at the eight
Stunning market complacency as oil still not flowing through Hormuz
Today we discuss a sense of unease that the market remains as complacent as it does given the magnitude of the disruption of oil and gas supplies through the Hormuz Strait. We also discuss Adobe's huge stumble despite strong earnings, FX and gold and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links:
Anas Alhajji discussing important current state of aff
Is the US blundering or playing geostrategic chess?
Today we try to try to find the signal amongst the general noise level and headlines coming both from the Iran War and the wider region and from the US politicians, especially regarding the status of the war and its intents. Most importantly, we try to understand if the US is actually playing a geostrategic brinksmanship card with China with this conflict and what the consequences of that might be
Doesn't it take two to TACO when a war has already broken out?
Today, an attempt to assess the comeback in risk sentiment and retreat in oil prices and whether we can trust President Trump's framing of the war situation, as a "TACO" (Trump always chickens out) may be more difficult to achieve now that the US and Israel or on a full war footing with an Iran that remains defiant and continues to launch missiles and drones. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global H
Global markets are still only pricing for modest disruptions from Iran war.
Global markets are rightly on edge about the situation in Iran and the disruption of the lifeline of crude oil, LNG and other supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, but the damage to confidence looks restrained relative to what awaits if the oil and gas don't begin to flow this week. This and much more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo
It's all about the Strait of Hormuz until it's about something far bigger.
Today, a rundown of how various global markets are positioned relative to the risk of the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed for various time periods. Towards the end of the podcast, we look at why, even if the short term focus is on the Strait of Hormuz and whether regime change lies ahead for Iran, something far more monumental is at stake. Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo also breaks down th
Broadcom pulls out the stops. US foments uprisings, complicating Iran risks.
Today, the market off on a cautious footing as crude oil prices remain high after yesterday's strong bounce-back attempt, with intense headline risk in both directions. We look at the latest developments and wonder where the US intelligence attempts to support Kurdish rebellions in Iran could lead, among other key questions. Elsewhere, Broadcom unleashed a massive forecast for its AI chip business
US market is in a world of its own. Also: Hormuz disruption timelines
Today, we note the US market's out-of-step behaviour relative to the rest of the world, as US traders have taken a buy-the-dip stance while Europe was down heavily on Tuesday and parts of Asia practically crashed overnight. US market internals continue to throw off interesting signals as well. We also note that the market continues to price a relatively short disruption to shipping through the key
Risk off as market ponders new energy crisis from Iran conflict.
Yesterday's positive close on the US equity market was a head scratcher and we try to put together a set of reasons how it was possible as we quickly yielded to a fresh round of deep risk off in Asia and Europe overnight and into this morning. Some thoughts on the "energy overlay" for all of the major currencies should this conflict persist and the energy price spike worsen and much more also on t
War on Iran's regime: reactions, scenarios and uncertainties.
Today we run through what has just happened in Iran, how global markets have reacted and the key developments to watch from here as we consider a few scenarios for where this takes us. So far, the market reaction outside of energy markets has been quite modest. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed
Nvidia dumps: a big signal or just an options vol crush? Also, a rare earth rabbit hole.
Today, a look at the market punishing Nvidia shares, and many other AI hardware-related stocks in Thursday's session - was this mostly about options-related flow or red flag related to long term growth concerns? Also, a look at other names with big moves, including Block ripping higher on announcing plans to fire 40% of its workforce due to AI productivity gains. Elsewhere, some thoughts on macro
Market largely shrugs off blowout Nvidia report. Not a great look.
Let's see if the US cash session (and the action into Friday's options expiry) tells us otherwise, but the market's very restrained reaction to Nvidia's very strong report might suggest a concern linked to the long term sustainability of Nvidia's prospects even amidst the incredible near term numbers. Elsewhere, we break down the results of other key software-as-a-service names reporting as well a
AI disruption trade finally hit a speed bump. Nvidia and other key names reporting.
The AI disruption trade finally saw some consolidation yesterday, ironically the day after a viral report on profound AI disruption sweeping over the market. Elsewhere, we have Meta going big on its commitment to AMD and Nvidia and key software-as-a-service names reporting today after the close. In FX, the JPY is tumbling as dovish BoJ appointments have the market questioning whether Japan's PM Ta
The AI apocalypse trade - when does it stop?
The AI disruption overlay trade is now bordering on the AI apocalypse trade as a well penned research report intensifies the sell-off in names that the market fears the future of AI will disrupt. IBM suddenly the latest victim on the announcement of the latest Anthropic tool that might be able to update old mainframe software. We try to assess the landscape and wonder when and whether the selling
SaaS stocks: high, moderate and low risk of AI disruption. Also: Nvidia up Wed.
With Ruben Dalfovo, Saxo Equity Market strategist, today we delve into how to approach and rate the prospects for beaten down software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks with a systematic approach and how some names may have been unfairly punished recently while the business models of others are indeed in doubt. We also look at a number of important software names reporting this week, as well as previewin
Recently boring Nvidia reports next week. Did we just see German green shoots?
Today, another breakdown of the remarkable dispersion in the US market, with few signs that it is ending just yet, while Europe continues to soar on record inflows. FX is deeper in limbo after USD shorts were squeezed - important to see how we close for the week there, especially for EURUSD as we saw a very pale green shoot from the German Manufacturing PMI today for the first time in years. This
It's all pivotal, whether US market sentiment, USD, JPY or geopolitics
Today, a look at a modest US equity market rally as we wonder whether those pressing recent themes within AI winners vs. AI losers have overextended themselves. In any case, equity technicals look pivotal here, as does the USD and JPY outlook in key pairs, all while we wonder whether markets, outside of the crude oil market itself, are too complacent in continuing to ignore the risk of the outbrea
AI overlay trades: is mean reversion the new pain trade?
Today, continuing to note the wild swings in individual names even as the overall indices look relatively flat on the surface, while wondering whether some of the recent attempts to play the AI winners/losers game has gone too far and if we could see some mean reversion. We run through a number of individual stock stories as well. Over in macro and FX we note the market shifting into limbo mode, w
Can both USD and JPY launch a comeback? Also: another 200B capex story...
Today, we discuss the ongoing "AI Overlay" trade, note another AI-related company that is not a hyperscaler, but is set to spend up to USD 200 billion on capacity expansions in coming years. Elsewhere, we discuss the strength of US treasury and Japans' government bond markets and whether this is contributing to pressure on precious metals. As well, we ponder whether both the US dollar and yen migh
AI overlay mayhem: where is this taking us?
Today, a look at everyone attempting to put on the "AI overlay" trade and whether this unsettles confidence in the market more broadly, or just deepens recent and very remarkable dispersion in the performance of many sectors. We also note the intense new focus on Walmart, which reports earnings later this week. Elsewhere, a rundown of macro and FX developments after soft US CPI data reported Frida
