Saxo Market Call
Saxo Bank’s strategy team delivers daily market insights across all asset classes, including equities, fixed income, currencies, and commodities. Each episode provides analysis of key market movements and trading opportunities. The podcast is aimed at investors and traders seeking professional perspectives on global financial markets.
Episoder
Another comeback day spoiled and then some. What gives?
Today, we look at the violent vibe shift in the US equity market, which crumbled overnight after a quite positive session, led by the very high momentum sectors that posted a solid result yesterday. It doesn't feel like this is all coming from negative reactions to earnings results from the likes of Tesla or Lam Research - but what is it? We wonder if it could be geopolitics. Also on today's pod,
SpaceX hopes burn bright as huge internal divergences within US market continue.
Today, a look at yet another day of US equity market divergences, as the major indices and semiconductors posted an indifferent to slightly negative day while most stocks were up solidly on the day. This rhymes with another market from around the years 2000-01. Also, a look at SpaceX and Netflix earnings and the very different reactions. French yields and much more also on today's pod, which is ho
Markets are on tilt. Why is SpaceX suddenly reporting today?
Today, we look at the markets trying to get back in a positive mood yesterday in the US, but with the broader market and the rest of the world not having any of it as oil prices surged once again and as the situation in France continues to fester. Discomfort with stability of AI "neo-cloud" companies is also weighing. With earnings season hitting full swing this week, we wonder why SpaceX is sudde
Comeback day and a giant sucking sound from Tesla
Today, a look at a massive comeback from further steep selling in US equities, establishing a critical line in the sand for the major indices and especially AI-adjacent names from here, effectively a bull-bear line. Elsewhere, Tesla demonstrated its new Roadster, which can both "fly" for an unknown number of seconds and "suck" itself to the road, allowing for beyond vertical adherence to a road su
That was ugly, but are we just getting started?
Today, a look at a wild day for US treasuries as a hot US CPI print first pumps US treasury yields, only to see longer-dated yields end the day at the lowest level in weeks. The US dollar followed yields lower and the implication is that treasuries may be a safe haven again as in the days of yore, given that stocks were generally weak for the entire post-CPI episode yesterday. This and much more,
Credit conditions are ratcheting tighter.
Today a look at signs of extreme tightening in credit concerns for a few key names even as stock and bond markets saw a quiet day and the general drift in credit conditions was only mildly negative. Also, a look at the first incoming US earnings reports and negative reception of some of the best numbers from Goldman Sachs. This and much more, especially on the many links below, on today's pod, whi
Are treasuries a safe haven again or is that too crazy a notion?
Today we look at yesterday's ugly session for tech and AI-related stocks, noting the follow on action once again in Asia overnight as well, all while the median stock was almost unchanged on the day. Elsewhere, we note US treasuries opening up heavily bid after the bank holiday and wonder whether US treasuries are suddenly serving their traditional role as a safe haven again. This and much more on
A few drops of diesel from Russia and Palantir hits new all-time high.
Today we look at the Russia diesel deal that will, spoiler alert, fail to meaningfully impact the supply situation for any length of time, but also consider the risk of a Ukraine-US rift. Elsewhere, macro traders are holding their breath for this Wednesday's US September CPI report, Palantir has just bolted to a new all time high and earnings season is set to kick off in earnest tomorrow. Today's
Was that a market fragility fire drill we just saw there?
Today, a look at the sudden contagion across markets Thursday on the FT reporting that OpenAI's revenue run rate is supposedly lower than OpenAI has claimed, with subsequent analysis inconclusive because of the opacity of the data, allowing markets to largely come full circle from the reaction, but at the same time revealing the risk of market fragility should an important AI-linked company report
Markets on tilt: will we see a proper slide lower?
Today, we note the rather ugly risk off tone across markets, with strong Samsung and TSMC earnings reports received somewhat poorly by the market overnight in Asia. Europe is suffering another weak session even as the key US indices once again managed a resilient performance, but can they continue to do so with the worrisome backdrop? Also today, full coverage of the latest oil spike, EU's natural
Europe wobbling again as US posts another all-time high.
Today, a look at Europe and the euro looking suddenly troubled again today as France continues to draw negative attention and Eurozone sovereign yield spreads have widened again today after France's Le Pen presented a long term budget plan on Tuesday. Elsewhere, sterling is charging higher against the single currency and Musk's net worth is back close to a trillion USD, chiefly on his SpaceX holdi
Rough seas, but calm sailing for equities?
Today, we note the confounding combination of very rough seas in macro and FX as EU sovereign debt stress, yield volatility and a strong US dollar weigh, and yet equities seem to be sailing along as if nothing malicious is afoot. Some coverage of why Tesla and especially SpaceX rallied hard on Friday as the latter moves closer to its plans to launch space-based AI data centers, with Google test un
Beware the steepening or what's the message?
Today we look at the crush lower in short term sovereign bond yields, especially in Europe, where Germany's bonds were bid while French and even Italian longer dated bonds remain stressed, a key focus for European markets and increasingly for the euro currency. The retreat in most sovereign bond yields has buoyed market sentiment today, but some underlying stress signs are still there, and credit
Yields must turn here, especially in Europe, or else.
Today, focusing chiefly on the implications for stocks and risk sentiment broadly if yields don't turn lower very soon, especially in Europe, where the focus on France is intensifying while Germany-France yield spreads blow wider and France puts together its budget proposal for the coming year. Some perspectives on how poorly the median US stock is doing relative to the strong overal indices as we
Burnham declares end of Thatcherism. Micron earnings on tap.
Today, a look at a calm market as a massive downdraft in US Consumer Confidence in September failed to weigh. Lots more data ahead before we know where we are with yields through Friday's US September payrolls and others jobs data. Elsewhere, UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham declared the end of Thatcherism and prospect for a much more visible hand from the UK government. This and much more on today'
Stress levels are rising if still not flashing red.
Today, a look back at another dicey day for risk sentiment as global bond yields continued to ratchet higher as we head into month-end and quarter-end with possible portfolio rebalancing in the mix after a remarkable period for fixed income. Elsewhere, our overall global risk indicator is under the most pressure since the Liberation Day episode in the spring of 2025, even if equity market sentimen
Asymmetric risks in a busy week ahead
Today - a look at a fresh spike in crude oil and bond yields spooking risk sentiment and gold bugs as we look at a busy week ahead on the macro calendar, especially for US data, but also an historic moment awaits the UK in tomorrow's speech from PM Burnham. The stakes are high for gilts and sterling. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. H
Geopolitics could continue to dog this market for a long while yet.
Today, a run through the outlook for crude oil with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen as we face a key week ahead, given Iran's bid for a 7-day negotiation window with the US. More with Ole on natural gas, the El Niño status and impacts and gold. Elsewhere, a run through the macro and rates and the week ahead, together with interesting single stocks stories driving the market action yeste
This is nuts - when's the intervention?
Today, we wonder how long markets can take any extension of the latest rather brutal sell-off in global bonds, which have taken the entire US yield curve from 5-years and out to new post-global financial crisis highs. Also, a look at the macro and FX reaction to bond market developments, the risk to macro trades if intervention is incoming at some point, and the three central bank meetings this mo
The narrowness of the advance at least a medium term concern.
Today - a look at how narrow the advance is in the US equity market that is taking the main indices close to their record highs and how this rhymes with past less-than-promising outcomes.. As well, we encourage market participants to keep bond yields and geopolitical headline risks on the radar - particularly for Europe if Trump announces an embargo on exporting diesel. This and much more on today
Enthusiasm for Meta's Muse reignites parts of AI trade
Today, we covered the breaking news of Iran's possible overture on opening the Hormuz Strait, followed by a breakdown of the market's strong risk-on reaction to news of strong demand for Meta's Muse personal AI assistant app, especially the cluster of stocks that rallied the most on the news. Elsewhere, a look at the state of play in FX and interest rates, geopolitical news flow and much more. Tod
MOVE more important than VIX
Today a look at equity market divergences in evidence on Friday as many stocks were lower, perhaps on the fresh rise in bond yields, while many large cap and momentum stocks did well on the day and are off to a strong start this week. Elsewhere, USDJPY is the critical focus in FX, there is plenty to discuss on the geopolitical front, both in terms of oil supply risks and the Trump-Xi summit set fo
Not the BoJ result the JPY bulls were looking for.
Today, a look at the steep JPY sell-off post Bank of Japan rate hike as the market was gunning for a firmer commitment to BoJ hiking and a stronger US dollar was already weighing in the background. Also, the BoE surprised slightly dovishly but moved to stabilize the long end of the UK yield curve. Also, we look at the pivotal situation for US stocks as we navigate triple witching ahead of next wee
Warsh hawkish, but market quick to reverse. Now comes BoJ.
Today, a look at the hawkish FOMC meeting yesterday, especially Fed Chair Warsh's positioning of the rate hike yesterday as merely removing accommodation, together with the sharp market reaction that has been surprisingly quick to unwind in places. Is this in respect of the incoming BoJ, the deflation of oil prices or because we are entering a new pivot zone for interest rates and possibly the US
The AI slowdown narrative weighing more than bond carnage...for now.
Today, a look at a remarkably resilient equity market even as the fresh spike in oil prices weigh and global bond yields have rushed to new highs for the cycle in many key markets. Looking at US equity market internals, the impact of Anthropic CEO Amodei's call for a "slowdown" in AI development (and perhaps Trump's aggressive poo-pooing of the idea) seems a more important factor for this market,
Fresh oil supply woes and pondering the agenda behind an AI "slowdown"
Today, a heady cocktail of developments are coming at us across geopolitics, intermarket forces, but especially a new twist in the AI story as Anthropic CEO Amodei calls for an AI development "slowdown" with other key industry voices chiming in with supportive comments. We discuss what this may be all about as risk sentiment is rather spooked by the story and by the latest surge in oil prices and
Yields explode higher, pressurizing the situation across markets.
Today, a look at the rip higher in global yields as crude oil prices spiked and the ECB surprised on the hawkish side of expectations. The market is trying to recover its equilibrium on hopes that a Monday meeting between GCC members and Iran will set things right. In the meantime, we have the US CPI report to get out of the way today, an FOMC meeting next Wednesday and Bank of Japan meeting next
Trump desperation grows ahead of midterms. US yields pop ahead of CPI.
Today, we note the fresh pop in US treasury yields to new cycle highs after the Treasury market buyback and Treasury Secretary Bessent's posturing failed to shore up confidence. Elsewhere, it was a rather negative day for risk sentiment on the latest aggravated rise in crude oil prices and that rise in yields, with Europe particularly spooked ahead of today's ECB meeting. We note key equity storie
Is copper too cheap relative to gold?
Today, a thorough look across the commodity space with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, discussing the latest developments in oil, refined products and the natural gas markets, the drivers for the recent record highs in the copper price and whether that price remains "too low" relative to gold if suppliers are to increase production. Elsewhere, a discussion of the latest moves in equiti
Energy prices and yen top market agenda. Copper hits record.
Today, noting the significant technical break lower for USDJPY and what may come next, with spiking energy prices somewhat of a headwind for JPY bulls and for global risk sentiment in general. At what point could energy prices suddenly seize more of the market's attention bandwidth? Elsewhere, we look into the record copper price, which is partially related to Hormuz Strait woes, Amazon's abuses o
USDJPY breakdown despite firm US jobs data
Today, most interesting to note that the positive US jobs report was unable to inspire sustained new highs in US treasury yields or spark a US dollar rally, with USDJPY even breaking down below critical support to start the week as US markets are closed for the extended Labor Day holiday. Elsewhere, AI hardware stocks are trying to get back their mojo as OpenAI has released its latest model. More
Big stakes for USDJPY over US jobs report.
Today, a look at the very confusing comments from the Fed's Waller, who waxed dovish so soon after Chair Warsh's recent hawkish musings that the market doesn't know what to do with the next FOMC meeting. Gold and crypto rose sharply on Waller's comments. Also, important incoming US jobs data today for the US treasury market, but especially for USDJPY after the big move higher in the JPY this week,
Markets pause for breath after yield run-up.
Today, a look at markets pausing to take a breath after the recent brutal rise in bond yields. The biggest mover Wednesday and Thursday was the Japanese yen on an apparent fresh round of intervention, although some interesting dynamics are at play in the Japanese government bond market as well. Elsewhere, a look at extreme bifurcation in AI stories for single names after earnings reports. A big fo
Have we entered the event horizon for a volatility spike?
Today, we look at the hefty risk-off tone across markets, if with a few notable exceptions, as risk assets are justifiably spooked by the further ramping in global bond yields. We argue that the situation feels like it has entered a zone of instability that could see volatility rising further in the near term, not that it has risen that much yet. Elsewhere, a lot of macro and FX coverage, especial
Global yield breakout dominates market focus
Today a look at the implications across markets as global yields are breaking higher at the long end of the yield curve, from the US 10-year, which hit a new 19-month high, to the German Bund hitting a 15-year high and 10-year JGB a 30-year high at 3.00%. We have a busy macro calendar for the week ahead as well, particularly for the US. Elsewhere, we note the spike higher in natural gas prices for
Warsh spoils the gold party. Busy week ahead.
Today, a look at Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish posturings at the Fed's Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium on Friday and the reaction across markets, which seemed most decisive for gold more than for the US dollar or risk sentiment more broadly. Also, we wonder how much more the market can get out of the Fed's hiking potential as we await the next move from Bessent and company at Treasury if US treasury y
Can Fed Chair Warsh give the market what it wants?
Today, a rundown of key commodity markets as oil markets remain tame and refined products are the bigger pinch point, gold and silver seem ready to rally anew if Fed Chair Warsh fails to roll out a hawkish stance in his speech today, and grain and soft prices are likely set to record their strongest month in years. Elsewhere, the stock market is putting on a show of strength on the surface as ever
Nvidia does what it can to bring cheer. Dark geopolitics still lurk in the background.
Today, with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo we look through three of the key earnings report seeing very positive market responses, topped by Nvidia's strong report and outlook. We go through the details, the good points and a few concerns in places. Elsewhere, macro is quiet and a lower oil price is helpful, but grains are on fire, in part linked to geopolitical concerns that continue to pre
Waiting for what may or may not surprise from Nvidia and the J-Hole.
Today, while crude oil prices were crushed by Strait of Hormuz headlines and bond yields responded to a degree, much of the market is in a holding pattern ahead of a string of event risks that may or may not provide what the market is hoping to get from them - especially Friday's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Warsh, not to mention today's Nvidia earnings release after the close. This and much
Geopolitics and US and European yields in the spotlight
Today, a look at the importance and geostrategic implications of the US-Canada trade stand-off, even if the current 50% tariff threat only impacts a small portion of the trade relationship. The geopolitical implications of the US threat to counter Iran's "enablers" are also considered, together with the latest news flow on AI data center financing stories, incoming earnings from Nvidia and other i
Bessent panics, gold and crypto rip, equity technicals pivotal
Today, we look at Treasury Secretary Bessent out trying to massage the market again after the Wednesday treasury buyback announcement failed to crush long US treasury yields. The treasury's actions continue to provide fuel for the sharp gold and crypto rallies. We also note that the market's so far modest correction is getting us close to pivotal technical territory for the S&P 500, with one c
US Treasury buyback announcement sets fire to the US dollar.
Today, looking of course at the impact of the US Treasury's increase of its treasury buyback program and the knock-on effects across asset markets, particularly the plunge in the US dollar versus hard- and even more so crypto assets. Importantly, we don't feel we have all of the answers, but hopefully we are asking some of the most important questions and pointing out the pivotal developments to w
Beginning of a larger bearish correction here?
Today, a thorough look at the commodity space, especially crude oil as hopes for relief from geopolitical tensions fade and how it may be weighing on broader risk sentiment. With Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, we also take a look at copper market dynamics and grain and soft developments as geopolitical and El Niño risks weigh. We also sift through broader equity market dynamics and th
Speedrunning dead internet theory - an SMC listener weighs in.
Today, a brief wrap of yesterday's equity market session in the US, which repeated some of the recent AI hardware vs. SaaS performance divergences. A couple of key AI-chip and hardware names reported with results that didn't satisfy the market. We also look at the US CPI release and the reaction across macro, noting a key US treasury auction up later today. Also, we read aloud a great email sent t
Treasury market reaction to US CPI the next key
Today, an emphasis on the importance of this US July CPI hurdle today and different scenarios based on what the data shows, all while emphasizing that geopolitics and the crude oil price are a very important independent variable as well. Also, a look at more AI hardware companies reporting yesterday and the market reception of those earnings reports as well as the next batch of AI-adjacent compani
Pressures from macro backdrop building ahead of US CPI
Today, we delve into the ongoing development of the "super el Niño" weather phenomenon, running through the difficulty in assessing the scale of potential impacts. Elsewhere, oil markets and refined product markets are spiking on the latest escalation in supply uncertainties from the Middle East. This we discuss with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, together with the factors driving the
Polysilicon supply chains may surprise you. US jobs data today!
Today, a look at how the market is positioned ahead of today's US jobs data and how a surprise - especially a negative surprise - might read across markets. Also, a brief discussion of polysilicon supply chains, which may surprise you, as China only dominates one of the key two production types. Also, a preview of the many interesting names reporting earnings next week. This and more on today's po
RIP Victor Niederhoffer
Today, we look at the latest market moves as we position the importance of Friday's US jobs report, noting the reaction to key incoming earnings from Western Digital and Sandisk in particular and the impressive rally move in gold and silver. Considerable coverage as well of Victor Niederhoffer, a larger than life Wall Street figure who died this Tuesday and whose life inspired and touched countles
SpaceX's Starmind to start on terra firma. Gold rally a signal?
Today, a look at the very strong day for US equity markets yesterday as the S&P 500 vaulted to a strong new all-time high amidst broad gains across sectors, with tech stocks roaring higher but the Nasdaq 100 not yet reaching a new peak. We look at the SpaceX earnings announcement and market reaction, including the announcement of a new Nvidia-chip based Starmind concept that is intended as the
Palantir beats and entertains. What can SpaceX deliver?
Today, a look at the broad market in a positive mood as recent divergences between AI hardware and other names were nowhere in evidence. We zoom in on Palantir's incredible quarterly reports and the wild and entertaining earnings call with CEO Alex Karp, wonder how SpaceX can deliver anything notable today relative to the company's valuation, and preview AMD, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, all with S
Coordinated JPY intervention and a cleaner AI hardware slate
Today, a look at the implications for a stronger JPY from coordinated intervention as the US has joined forces with Japan to force yen appreciation. As well, we wonder what the implications are for equities now that we trade with a much cleaner slate after reaching the other side of blowups in leveraged single-stock ETFs and the liquidation of the Situational Awareness fund late last week. A busy
Momo trade roars back to life, but for how long?
Today, a look at the market returning to its past form as AI-related hardware stocks ripped higher even as the median stock on the S&P 500 posted a negative day. Also, a look at the many interesting earnings reports up next week, a rundown of the action in FX after massive USDJPY intervention and a Bank of Japan meeting and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy
Wishy washy Fed Chair Warsh vibe punches sentiment in the gut
Today, a look at the market's concern that this Fed isn't determined to get ahead of inflation and the impact on US treasury yields, which spooked market sentiment broadly in the US yesterday. Elsewhere, Microsoft's strong earnings report after the close is doing what it can to stabilize risk sentiment, even as the market soured further on Meta on its earnings call. Today and tomorrow feel high st
Peak SK Hynix madness?
Today, we wonder if the back side of SK Hynix's earnings report overnight and the popping of the leveraged ETF bubble in some of the single tech names has now largely run its course - leaving the market for its next move - whether broadly up or otherwise. Certainly, a key event risk like today's FOMC and/or Friday's Bank of Japan meeting could serve as a pivot point. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Glo
Three hyperscalers set to report as AI momentum stocks stumble
Today, a look at the intensifying sell-off in high momentum AI hardware names, led by a an ugly meltdown in the two Korean memory stocks overnight. Meanwhile, the broader market posted a very different and far more positive day, an intensification of recent patterns. Also, we looked at the recent Alphabet, Tesla and Intel earnings reports and the coming reports from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon.com and
FOMC, BoJ and Earnings Season peak this week
Today, we look at a few things that unfolded late last week in reaction to some of the first big earnings reports of this quarter and preview the week ahead, which is the biggest one for this quarterly earnings cycle. It's a big week ahead for macro as well, as the FOMC, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are all up later this week. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head
With special guest Peter Garnry of Gesda Capital
Today, a conversation with special guest Peter Garnry, co-founder of Gesda Capital on choosing and valuing stocks for the long run, observations on the current state of play in AI as expressed in equity markets, the Meta and other news this week and its implications, whether AI can truly scale as hoped and so much more, even what Peter is reading these days. I'm sure listeners will enjoy this conv
Meta announcement: just a warning shot or the actual pin prick?
Today, a look at global equity markets roiled by Meta's announcement that it will rent out use spare data center capacity for AI applications, raising concerns for AI-linked cap-ex and all stocks linked with the "AI picks and shovels" theme even as it was read as a boon for Meta's stock itself. Software as a service and consulting names also rallied on the news. Elsewhere, Japan is intervening aga
Rocket Lab enters the space comms fray with Iridium grab. Also, USA at 250!
John's piece: Wall Street at 250 through a Wall Street lens: Where we've been and what comes next.
Today, a round-up of another session with AI hardware momentum names rocketing higher, while the broader market was largely sideways. Elsewhere, crypto and gold are both teetering near or beyond key support at critical technical levels, while we note an ugly turn in one part of the US Consumer Confid
Leverage upon leverage, what could go wrong?
Today, a look at the latest strong session for some of the market's highest momentum names, as we note with some caution the risks that leverage, especially not fully evident hidden leverage is a mounting risk for the most speculative corners of the market. We also preview Nike earnings as the company does not yet look like a bargain after its 77% fall from all time highs into yesterday's low, unl
Flat Friday on the index surface, but bonkers beta underneath.
Today, a look at a much zanier Friday session in US equities than the almost flat close on the S&P 500 suggested as market internals have become wildly divergent, much of it linked to the market's bucketing of AI winners and losers. Elsewhere, as Volkswagen sets up a possibly 100,000 layoffs, in part on weaker Chinese demand and greater competition from cheaper Chinese EVs, and as Europe roast
Apple pays for the hubris. Samsung to bust out a quadrillion in cap-ex.
Today's John J. Hardy substack post.
Today, a look at some incredible volatility and cross-currents in the US equity market as Mag7 continues to come in for a beating as chip stocks soared once again. But then the two Korean memory makers stumble overnight, perhaps on Samsung announcing it my plow KRW 1 quadrillion (about USD 650 billion) into cap-ex over the next decade. Elsewhere, the market gav
Micron tries to revive AI hardware momo. Gold tests below 4,000.
Today, the blow-out Micron earnings report is doing all it can to revive the AI hardware momentum trade, and it will be interesting to see how the huge jump in Micron shares ages into the options expiry this Friday. Elsewhere, the US dollar has continued its rally, but will fresh drivers for further strength be hard to come by? A focus on sterling's upside potential on the potential Burnham politi
The US dollar is having its cake and eating it too...for now.
Today, we look at the drivers of the stronger US dollar as it pulls to new highs for the year and what may be holding back USDJPY from participating in the greenback rally as those forty-year highs from 2024 approach. Elsewhere, yesterday's US equity market session was so far mostly only a one-off meltdown in high momentum stocks, with the median stock positive on the day. Massive interest and pot
Chips suddenly on tilt into Micron earnings Wednesday
Today's John J. Hardy Substack post - you won't want to miss today's links!
Today, a huge vibe shift overnight as Korean memory stocks come unglued Tuesday, sending US equity market futures into a tailspin. Is this just a bit of retrenchment ahead of Micron's earnings Wednesday after the close or is the market at risk of a bigger air-pocket? Elsewhere, the US dollar is breaking higher, but with US
Likely Super El Niño building: a non-alarmist take on the risks
Today, a sober and thorough look at the risks for key commodities and equities on the powerful El Niño climate phenomenon building in the Pacific, one that could prove the most intense humanity has experienced in many decades. Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy takes you through the potential commodity impacts and reminds us that some areas can see positive outcomes even if key food commodities and e
Accenture needing dentures after market knocks its teeth out
Today, we highlight another high energy day for the equity market, with semiconductor stocks screaming back higher and the US dollar continuing its move higher post-FOMC, even as we question whether the market is anticipating the future path of Fed policy appropriately. A focus on the worst performer in the S&P 500 today: Accenture, which was pummelled 18% to an almost nine-year low on fears o
Fed Chair Warsh impact washes over markets
Today, we note the huge change in vibe and substance as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh took charge at the Fed at his first meeting. He is a great communicator and put his stamp on how this Fed will be a very different one with far fewer hints on its intentions - i.e. no forward guidance to the degree possible. The initial market read was clearly hawkish, but while short rates jumped as a possible FOMC
Choppy chips even as crude mega-dips. Warsh on tap.
Today, some last thoughts on the FOMC ahead of the meeting as the market is treating it with little anticipation even if this is likely to prove the most significant ideological change at the Fed since Greenspan left in 2006. Also - evidence from a choppy session for chips that the market nervousness may be rising for the hero sectors powering the recent market advance, especially given the max su
The tails wagging the market and SpaceX dogs
Today's John J. Hardy Substack post for this podcast
Today we look at a fresh stunning advance in US equities as we reapproach the all time highs for the main US indices, with a wild advance in SpaceX shares perhaps one key bit of the sentiment "tail" wagging the overall market dog as we also discuss why SpaceX shares may have risen so aggressively, even after hours yesterday. Elsewhere, a breakdo
FOMO in equities, ho-hum in macro even as new Fed era begins this week.
Today, a look at risk sentiment in full swing after a successful SpaceX IPO on Friday and a stronger sense that the Iran war ceasefire may last long enough for shipping lanes to fully open in the Hormuz Strait, at least for a time. But while speculative energy remains high in equities, the broader macro picture is subdued, with little FX and rates volatility even as the new Kevin Warsh Fed marks t
Rounding up the usual suspects as a new era at the Fed dawns next week.
Today, the usual suspects knee-jerked higher Thursday on Trump's latest peace declaration as crude oil dropped, while the other usual suspects (software as a service) were some of the worst performers ahead of Adobe's earnings release after the close. Also, a strong discussion of the status for gold, copper, crude oil and El Niño with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, a look at macro and
The either-or moment for US stocks and gold
Today, a look at markets testing the lows again yesterday, but trying to put in a rally ahead of a huge market event tomorrow that could define where this market heads next in what could prove an either-or moment. Elsewhere, interesting market reaction to Oracle's earnings report after the close, and super-critical support levels have come into play for the gold price, which faces its own either-o
Market volatility expansion flashes red. Gold key support in view.
Today, a look at what the further acceleration in US- and other market volatility means, particularly for the highly speculative chip stocks that have seen the greatest gains this year, even on a day when the broader market and median stock closed in the green. Elsewhere, gold is melting down and faces a critical support level soon if the selling continues. This and much more on macro and FX also
Many moving parts ahead of next week's seminal event
Today, a look at the market trying to continue its bounce-back from Friday's meltdown in especially chip stocks, interesting news flow on the AI data center financing front, lots on macro and FX and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
Today's The FX Trader from John
The great Izabella Kaminska with second order thinking in an X post on the poss
Correction not yet a calamity.
Today, putting Friday's big market sell-off in perspective as an overdue development after the huge recent ramp in high momentum stocks. Broader risk sentiment remains fairly calm, though there is a bit of stress from geopolitics and higher oil prices, as well as on crypto and from a stronger US dollar and higher US treasury yields. Lots to focus on this week and next with the incoming earnings of
The real reason Musk wants to go to Mars?
Today we look at fresh blow-out enthusiasm for a major tech name reporting strong earnings that blasted its stock into the stratosphere after hours yesterday. We also note the bevy of interesting tech names reporting next week, run through some macro and FX observations, note the key technical hold in gold, the shifting forward curve in crude oil and more. Regarding today's episode title, consider
Snowflake rips, Gold at critical levels.
Today, we note the very different outcomes for the two admittedly very different software names Salesforce and Snowflake as both reported earnings after the close yesterday. Elsewhere, insane volatility for Marvell in yesterday's session ahead of its own earnings report after the close - are the wheels coming off a bit here for chip names. Also, Gold needs to take a stand here or else, plenty on
Memory mania or just catching up with fundamentals?
Today's John J. Hardy substack (and yes, embarrassing bad math from your host in today's podcast)
Today, we try to keep observations balanced as we observe the latest race higher in memory chip makers after a big bank posted a jaw-dropping price target for Micron. This helped pull the broader market higher, as did the recent drop in crude oil prices. Elsewhere, we look at Ferrari's stumble with it
Solace for quantum investors as long weekend awaits
Today, a look at quantum computing stocks getting a big bump on public investments in the space in the US. Elsewhere, it remains all about AI stocks pumping higher, while one notable software-as-a-service (Saas) name was the S&P 500 index's worst performer yesterday. Interesting earnings reports are up next week on both the chip and the SaaS front. Also, some more macro and FX observations and
